May 17, 2006
Bird Flu Brewing
The bird flu is brewing. You may have heard that Indonesia has a cluster - eight members of a family infected, six are dead. However, if you read the front page of the New York Times on Sunday, you would think everything was peachy. Or if you watched the made for TV movie, "Fatal Contact" on Wednesday, which did not get good reviews, you are just awakening from your faint. (How our President likes you best). The part about being quarantined behind barbed wire was particularly offensive, though let's not rule out the administration's use of barbed wire for any number of other purposes, .
The source a girl can really trust, Revere, over at Effect Measure, said yesterday "Clusters are worrisome". Today he posted an excellent essay on the unpredictable nature of clusters, in which he said, "My personal opinion is that the Indonesian cluster looks like it is a possible instance of either increased bird to human transmission or an instance of human to human. These cases have occurred before, but the size of this cluster makes one ask if something has changed. Henry Niman derides the idea it is enhanced bird to human transmission on the grounds that bird flu is very hard to catch from a bird. True. There are millions of bird human exposures and very few human cases. On the other hand it is hard to catch from other people, too. So I'm not sure I understand Henry's point (although I am quite sure he'll tell me, in his usual gracious way)"
Yesterday the Santa Barbara News-Press published this warning , which I found in my email. Looks like it's time to read Peter Sandman's excellent essays on risk communication again. He has a new one that addresses the lessons from Katrina. One of his contentions is that we need to learn how to scare people, and we need to dare to scare them. Surprizingly, journalists don't seem to be knocking down his doors.
The Santa Barbara News Press mentions an information site avianflutalk.com which is new to me and, I am sure, is chock full of good information. like how to plant a large garden cheaply. I haven't had time to mine it yet. Fluwiki remains a most stalwart and dependable resource.
In any case here's my preparation list once again, should it not be indelibly written on your soul. Speaking of which, Pat Robertson, had a communication from god that lends itself to this entry. I wonder if he thinks global warming has anything to do with his predictions.
Addendum: Follow up on Indonesian cluster from Dem from CT at Daily Kos.
Photo note: This is the blue heron I stalked last fall.
Posted by Dakota at May 17, 2006 07:08 PM